Employment State of affairs: Slower Employment, Wage, Combination Hours Progress

From the Employment State of affairs Launch:

Determine 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (blue), NFP early benchmark (tan), and CPS employment adjusted to NFP idea (inexperienced), all in 1000’s, s.a.. Philadelphia Fed NFP early benchmark calculated by making use of early benchmark sum of states stage ratio to post-benchmark sum of states stage to CES nationwide stage NFP. Supply: BLS through FRED, Philadelphia Fed, and creator’s calculations.

Determine 2: Personal nonfarm payroll employment from CES (blue), from ADP (inexperienced), and combination weekly hours for personal nonfarm (tan), all in logs, 2021M11=0. Supply: BLS, ADP through FRED.

Determine 3: Common hourly earnings for personal nonfarm (black), Bloomberg consensus y/y (mild blue sq.), and CPI (darkish pink), all 2021M11=0. April CPI primarily based on Cleveland Fed nowcast of 5/3. Supply: BLS, Bloomberg, Cleveland Fed and creator’s calculations.

Determine 4: Sahm rule real-time indicator (darkish blue), and 0.50% threshold (dashed pink line). Supply: FRED.